Dato del Día

For Hispanic Heritage Month, we’re doing something new: one essential data point a day, straight to your inbox. We’ll give you the numbers and the meaning behind them, drawn from the same research we use to guide campaigns, partners, and policymakers.

Equis was created to fill the gaps and build a grounded understanding of where Latinos actually are, even when the truth is hard to hear. As I always say: we can’t know where to go if we don’t know where we really are. Over the last seven years we’ve interviewed more than 150,000 Latinos, giving us an unparalleled ability to go deep on the hard questions and track how the answers change over time.

As our board chair recently said, “Latinos have never been a sleeping giant. We are the swinging giant,” and part of sharing this information is to show you why and how.

Today is National Voter Registration Day, so we’re starting with scale.

Registration is a critical investment this year: registering new Latino voters is likely to make the 2026 electorate more Democratic (the same is true for African Americans, students, and first- and second-generation Americans). But registration doesn’t guarantee turnout. That’s why it is essential to follow up with both persuasion and mobilization to ensure new registrants fulfill their potential impact.

We’ll be unpacking what’s happening with Latinos, and what it all adds up to, all month long. Tell me where you agree, where you disagree, and where you want to see more from us.

– Stephanie

Hi again!

As I mentioned yesterday, Latinos are the swinging giant. That, in a nutshell, is the answer to the question I get asked most: how could Latinos have voted for Trump in 2024?

Most groups moved toward Trump in 2024 – young people, men, immigrants, college-educated voters – and Latinos were no exception. Latinos weren’t living on another planet during the Biden administration. They experienced the same squeeze from rising prices, the same sense of perpetual crisis, the same lack of presence and energy from the president. But across almost every demographic group we looked at, Latinos moved more.

So what made Latinos different? Three factors stand out:

1. Churn and malleability. Latinos have a heavy contingent of young and immigrant voters, two groups with weaker ties to either party, and who are more likely to bend when the winds of change start to blow.
2. A distinct discontent. The twin crises of inflation and migration cut deeper for Latinos, and for some, that changed how they saw the parties and themselves.
3. New social dynamics. The permission structure shifted: voting for Trump became more socially acceptable, even desirable, in Latino circles.

Note that none of these are campaign problems. These forces were at play long before Kamala Harris became the nominee. A better message or an additional $10 million (or $25 million, or $50 million) would not have wiped out a change that had been brewing for four, or even eight, years.

The bottom line: Republicans probably won’t keep every voter Trump won, but a meaningful share seems likely to stick, which means the baseline both parties start from has moved. Tomorrow, we’ll show you exactly where it sits now.

– Stephanie

Over a million Latino citizens are expected to turn 18 this year, all of them born the same year Barack Obama was elected president. Their political memory doesn’t include the Obama coalition or the Bush-era outreach fights. COVID, chaos, and corruption have been their formative political experiences. It’s a stark reminder that the Latino electorate is not static from election to election. The constant is dynamism.

As we talked about yesterday, the starting point for the parties has moved. Some of Trump’s new Latino voters are likely to stick with the GOP even when Trump is not on the ballot. But even after all the shifts of the Trump elections, Latinos have retained what I like to call their “persuadable middle.” They aren’t anyone’s to win or lose by default.

Beyond the numbers: The numbers tell us that Latinos are movable, but they don’t tell us the full story about why they move. That’s the question behind Beyond the Ballot, one of my favorite projects at Equis – a yearlong interview study following Latino voters through 2024 and after, listening to how they talk about the economy, immigration, and cultural values, and what led them to vote for Trump, stick with Democrats, or sit it out. Read more here.

– Stephanie

Feliz Viernes!

Dato del Día isn’t the only experiment we’re running this year. Alongside the hundreds of partners whose field, digital, and communications programs we help shape, we’re going deep with one partner in particular: Somos Votantes, led by Melissa Morales, its founder and president.

Somos runs one of the largest independent Latino civic engagement and mobilization programs in the country. This cycle, Equis is their primary research and strategy partner: shaping voter file universes, messaging, and content across field, radio, mail, and digital, in English and Spanish.

The Somos-Equis partnership pairs large-scale outreach and research-informed messaging and targeting in a region that could well decide control of both the House and Senate this year. The program layers a robust field operation – 300,000 doors knocked by Election Day – with English and Spanish paid communications across multiple channels to create a surround-sound approach that reaches Latino voters with repeated, reinforcing messages.

And here’s the part I’m most excited about. It still surprises me how rarely the tactics campaigns use to reach Latino voters get evaluated afterward. This program has a cutting-edge RCT design built into it from the start, so we’ll know what worked and what’s worth scaling in 2028.

We believe in Melissa, in the work that Somos does, and in the impact of our partnership. If you are interested in moving c3 or c4 money to support their work, she has our highest endorsement. Get in touch with us to learn more.

– Stephanie

Happy Monday,
Week two of Dato del Día – your daily dose of Latino data.
The path to a majority in the House runs through a very Latino map this year.

Where Latino support and turnout land in these districts will be a major factor in who wins the House (and in the story we tell about why). Tomorrow we’ll have more on where Democrats are with Latino support to date.

Until then, a few races to watch.

Equis’s co-founder Carlos Odio has been part of a New York Times pundit’s series that highlights key insights from top researchers on the 2026 election. In their most recent series, Carlos highlighted FL-22 – one of the more competitive districts. Here is why:

Other races we’re keeping a close eye on this year include: TX-15, CO-08, FL-27, CA-22 and PA-07. Would love to chat about why. If you have others you’d add to this list, I’d love to hear what you’re watching and why – please reach out with your thoughts.

– Stephanie

Happy Tuesday,

The polls and the prediction models have been delivering a lot of good news for Democrats lately. I’m optimistic, if cautious, too. But when it comes to Latinos, the thing that really piques my interest – and should pique yours too – is where the current numbers sit in the broader context of the Trump era.

Beyond the numbers: Our polling is a snapshot in time and not a perfect predictor of how Latino support levels will shake out in November, but right now the picture we are seeing looks more like the 2022 midterm, a year in which Republicans largely held on to Trump’s 2020 gains with Latinos. Whether Democrats can wind back the clock further remains to be seen – and it could well make the difference in some key seats. There is important work left to do and, fortunately, a window in which to do it.

There are still potential Trump defectors open to persuasion, undecideds sitting on the fence, and many Latinos waiting for someone to reach out and ask them to vote. What happens between now and Election Day will help determine whether current support levels hold, keep growing, or backslide.

– Stephanie

Howdy from the Lone Star state! Here in Austin to speak at the Latino Community Foundation Latino Voter Summit and The Texas Tribune Festival.

Yesterday we talked about 2018 and 2022 as two meaningful benchmarks for how far Democrats have turned back the clock among Latinos. Today, we’re looking at how those different scenarios might play out in Texas.

This is what the persuadability I’ve been talking about looks like in action. And it puts a range of scenarios in play.

Beyond the numbers: The same August poll showed Democrats running well ahead of Harris’s 2024 floor in Texas, and trending up. How far they can rebound with Latinos is the central question heading into November, with major implications for Democrats’ ability to stave off GOP gains under the post-redistricting lines.

If we look at past partisan performance under the new lines, a 2022 scenario would net four seats for the GOP. Switch the scenario to 2018 and the gain drops to a single seat. This is more of a thought experiment than a prediction, but it shows the potential impact that different degrees of Democratic recovery can have, especially in heavily Latino districts like those in South Texas.

We’ve got a new Texas poll that just came out of the field this week. If you’re interested in knowing more, hit me up.

– Stephanie

Something I have been spending a lot of time thinking about is gender and specifically Latinas. While the shifts among men got the lion’s share of attention in 2024, there is a story to be told about Latinas too. The dynamism of Latinos isn’t just about the classic swing voter who votes regularly but switches from one party to the other. It also comes from new and irregular voters, those who don’t vote in every election, or who haven’t voted at all (yet). Today we’re shining a spotlight on a critical segment of that group – Latinas – and a new tool Equis has helped build to find them.

Beyond the numbers: To help close that gap, Equis is partnering with the Eva Longoria Foundation (ELF), Poderistas, Mi Familia Vota, and Power California on a Latina voter project. The Eva Longoria Foundation is helping those organizations sharpen their voter registration work in California, Texas, and Nevada. To support that work, we built an interactive census-tract mapping tool that provides a tract-by-tract view of exactly where the concentration of unregistered Latinas is highest, so outreach can go where the opportunity actually is instead of where it’s assumed to be.

If you want to hear directly from someone who has been living the story of an irregular Latina voter, we encourage you to meet Lorena, a Mexican American woman living in Colorado who we’ve followed for six rounds of conversation as part of our Beyond the Ballot project. She voted for Biden in 2020, sat out entirely in 2024, and has described feeling unclaimed by either party the whole way through.

And if you want to see the mapping tool in action or learn more about our partnership with ELF, reply and we’ll set up a time.

– Stephanie

Happy Friday,
We close up week two of Dato del Día tackling corruption as part of the closing argument for Latinos. Perceptions of corruption in the U.S. government are at an all-time high, driven mainly by an increase among Democrats and independents over the past two years. Small wonder, given the news we see every day.

It might be tempting to look at these trends and conclude that corruption is the strongest closing argument for Democrats in 2026. Our testing suggests a more nuanced take is required, especially in Spanish.

We don’t yet know why this difference exists, but we do know that an economic message with an explicit corruption angle did not significantly increase support among Spanish-dominant Latinos in our testing. Instead, the best performer was a similar economic message that contrasted Republicans “siding with the wealthy elite” with Democrats “fighting to deliver for working families.” (In fact, we found the same pattern among English-dominant Latinos, a reminder that high levels of concern about an issue don’t guarantee an effective message.)

One important caveat: corruption comes in many forms, and we tested one. Our “corruption” message framed the problem as self-enrichment. But Republicans siding with the wealthy elite could also be seen as a corruption argument. That in itself is a real lesson: instead of asking whether we should talk about corruption, the better question is how. And we can’t take the answer for granted, especially in Spanish.

The more specific we can be about what is and is not working right now, the better. For Latinos, and especially Spanish dominants, messaging about Republicans’ self-enrichment and corrupt deals is not the most effective. What’s working is a focus on the economy and cost of living – consistently the top issue throughout the cycle – and a clear contrast between Republicans’ allegiance to the wealthy elite and Democrats’ commitment to fighting for everyone else.

– Stephanie

We know that the media landscape has rapidly shifted with the rise of social media and digital platforms. In this week’s Dato del Día, we are going to focus on how and where Latinos fit.

Beyond the numbers: Not only has this digital takeover changed where Latinos get their news and entertainment media, it has also changed how they engage with legacy sources. Take the Spanish TV news ecosystem as an example. Univision’s dominance has eroded from the heyday of the nightly news with Jorge and María Elena – and even the way Latinos engage with it has changed. Now, we’re finding that among Latinos who consume Univision or Telemundo content, watching clips on social media is just as common as watching on live TV.

As legacy media has declined, influencers have entered the chat. It’s a request we get often: just tell me who I need to talk to. But there is no silver-bullet list of influencers. The work of reaching and connecting with Latinos online requires more nuance.

At Equis, we’ve spent years exploring those nuances – you can find more of our research here. This week, we’ll delve into some of our latest insights on:

• The centrality of YouTube as a platform for reaching Latinos
• The continued relevance of radio – yes, it’s still a thing!
• Creative approaches to targeting Latinos online
• The difference between active and passive news consumers

– Stephanie

At Equis, we’ve been talking about the value of YouTube for years.

And this isn’t just because Latinos skew younger: across all age categories, Latinos consume more YouTube than the average voter. Young Latino men and women do have distinct online profiles – men use X, Reddit, Discord, and Twitch more heavily, while women over-index on TikTok and Pinterest – but YouTube holds the top slot for both. In the 18–34 group, 95% of Latino men and 92% of Latina women report using YouTube in the past week.

Beyond the numbers: Latinos are more likely than the average voter to use platforms like YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok, not just for entertainment and browsing, but for searching for information about current events, news, politics, and elections.

Whether it’s developing new organic channels, partnering with creators, or using paid advertising on YouTube, you can’t have a compelling Latino media plan without a strong YouTube component.

Coming up later this week: how to target and find the Latino audiences you are looking for online. (Hint: browser settings are only the beginning.)

– Stephanie

Really, radio is still a thing? With all the focus on digital platforms, it’s a question we get often. The answer: yes, it is – especially among Latinos who spend at least part of their day speaking Spanish (like me!). I like to call it the original social media.

Beyond the numbers: Radio could be called the original social media. Radio DJs have deep trust among their listeners. From news to weather to traffic, people rely on their radio personalities to share the latest information on what is happening in their communities. And people who live most of their lives in English may tune into Spanish-language radio for cultural connection.

Sadly, Spanish radio is often an afterthought for campaigns – a pattern we’re seeing again in some key races this cycle. But it is a cost-efficient tactic that can be deployed late.

In other words: there is still time to place radio ads this election cycle!

– Stephanie

Good morning!
With so much voter and consumer engagement now online, it’s important to think about how to get the most out of your targeting when trying to reach Latinos.
When deploying Spanish-language creative online, there is a tendency to assume that the goal is to find the “Spanish speakers” and that the best way to do that is by targeting Spanish-language browser settings. But if that is the only way campaigns deliver Spanish ads, they will systematically underserve Latinos, even those who speak mostly Spanish.

Beyond the numbers: Communicating with Latinos in Spanish is important not only for delivering information to those who live their lives fully in Spanish, but also because it signals care and investment in the community to a much broader audience. More than 6 in 10 Latino voters speak at least a little Spanish day-to-day. And that means a lot of persuadable Latinos are living their lives bilingually.

This isn’t a call to abandon targeting by browser settings; it’s a call to do more. Combining tactics – particularly targeting based on cultural content – can reach meaningfully more Latino voters. To give just one example: combining browser settings with Latin music targeting could reach up to 59% of all Latinos and 74% of Spanish speakers.

For those worried Spanish creative might spark backlash among a broad audience: we haven’t seen that in our testing. In a 2023 YouTube brand lift study, for example, Spanish creative significantly increased candidate favorability among those with Spanish browser settings and a broader audience that included both English speakers and non-Latinos.

Tomorrow, we’ll close out the week with a finding that should shape how you think about reaching Latinos in both Spanish and English: the difference between active and passive news consumers.

– Stephanie

As life has moved increasingly online, we’ve had to shift our understanding of who news consumers are. If you hear the words “news consumer” you may picture someone picking up a newspaper with their morning coffee or turning on the 6 o’clock news. But in a digital-first world, many people are exposed to the news simply because they “happen to come across it” not because they actively seek it out. This is the difference between active and passive news consumers.

Beyond the numbers: Latinos who consume news passively are more likely to be found on Instagram and TikTok, while active news consumers are more likely to consume linear media, browse online articles, and listen to podcasts.

On YouTube – where 88% of passive news consumers spend time weekly – they’re (unsurprisingly) much less likely than active consumers to watch news-centric channels, and more likely to watch entertainment content: music, cooking, movies, gaming, beauty. These spaces offer a way to reach Latinos who aren’t seeking out political content on their own.

Equis recently partnered with Vocal Media to develop some best practices for leveraging Latino creator and amplifier programs on YouTube. Reach out if you’re interested in learning more!

– Stephanie

Welcome back to Dato del Día! This week our focus is on the issues: the economy, AI, anti-trans attacks, the war in Iran, and socialism. None of these issues is going away any time soon, and all have a deeper lesson to teach us about how Latinos are navigating this political moment.

The economy and cost of living have topped Latino voters’ list of most important issues throughout the cycle. And if you’ve filled up your gas tank or paid your utility bills lately, it’s not hard to understand why. But at Equis we like to say: the economy is not just the economy. It’s also about people’s values and identities, their dreams and aspirations.

Beyond the numbers: When it comes to the American Dream, the term itself is clearly carrying some baggage. At the same time, a large majority of Latinos still believe in one of its core tenets: success through hard work. Even after all the economic hardships of recent years, 72% of Latinos say that there “is a lot of opportunity in this country for people to get ahead if they are willing to work hard.” That lens of hard work is a recurring theme across our research, and it’s something I hear consistently from the Latinos I talk to – their own hard work and contributions are a core part of their identities.

In holding both these truths at once – that the American Dream feels like it has gotten harder to achieve, and that there is still a lot of opportunity to build success through hard work – Latinos are focused on a vision of their future that is centered on stability and security rather than grander dreams of wealth and status. Registered Latino voters in our polling tell us the most essential parts of a successful life are “being able to live comfortably and pay for basic necessities without stress” (45%) and “living in a safe and stable community” (40%), compared to owning a home (27%), owning a business (9%), or becoming wealthy (8%).

Latinos are a core part of the multiracial working-class coalition that is shaking up our politics. Which party can speak to both the concerns of today and the dreams of tomorrow may well determine where they go next.

Check out more of our research on the economy and the American Dream here.

– Stephanie

Artificial intelligence – like it or not, it’s here to stay, as part of our lives and our politics. In our research this year, we’ve been working on establishing a baseline of where Latino voters are on the topic of AI. Concern about AI has been rising in the electorate overall, with data centers as a focal point. Latinos share those concerns, but as with many issues, some of the nuances of Latinos’ views here may surprise you.

Overall, 43% of registered Latino voters in our polling look like true AI pessimists – concerned that AI will take away jobs and doubtful of its future benefits. No doubt that’s a sizable group, but nearly as many Latinos have mixed or uncertain views (42%), and 15% are outright optimists. Add to the mix the fact that 46% of registered Latino voters are using AI apps like ChatGPT on a weekly basis – including 57% of young Latinos ages 18–34 – and a picture far more complex than mere optimism vs. pessimism emerges.

With the technology itself evolving at a breathtaking pace, we should expect the politics of AI to be in flux as well. It’s an issue we’ll be keeping a close eye on as we head into the next election cycle. If you’re interested in learning more, hit me up.

– Stephanie

Republicans have made trans issues a centerpiece of their culture-war strategy – not just by attacking trans rights directly, but by painting Democrats as extreme and out of touch. It’s a strategy that resonated with some Latinos in 2024, so it comes as no surprise that it has reared its head again in the 2026 home stretch.

Beyond the numbers: While it remains important to put economy messaging first, these attacks cannot go unanswered. A lack of response is not a neutral action – it helps foster the perception that Democrats are overly focused on trans issues, rather than the issues that matter most to everyday people. When Latino voters see anti-trans attacks with no response from Democrats, they are more likely to say that Republicans “care more about people like them” (+14), a key metric that shapes and shifts voter behavior.

It’s critical that candidates take action to define themselves on the issue in a way that allows Latino voters to see that they are reasonable – that they take these concerns seriously, but their priority is the safety and well-being of everyone.

Messaging should be framed around Republicans’ wrong priorities and the human and everyday impact they have on all of us. It should use proof points that show economic waste and highlight the real cost of Republicans focusing on trans issues instead of more salient issues like the cost of living.

For more on how to counter anti-trans attacks among Latino audiences – including the specific messages we’ve seen work well in testing, check out the research we’ve done this year in partnership with Trans Freedom Alliance, GSG, and HIT Strategies.

– Stephanie

Maybe you’ve heard someone say it: Trump seems to be governing like he wants to lose the midterm.

His second-year slide into historic unpopularity represents an accumulation of discontents, many of his own making, but the decision to walk the U.S. into a quagmire in Iran stands out, particularly with Latinos. That’s what my colleagues Carlos Odio and Rachel Stein are writing about this week at The New Dynamic.

That has translated into a sustained drop in the president’s approval ratings that began in the spring of this year after months of relative stability, even through the tragic events in Minneapolis.

But Carlos and Rachel argue that there’s more here than meets the eye. The war is not just about the war. It is a potent signal about the president’s priorities. And for Latinos – already more inclined to focus on domestic problems and more opposed to lengthy foreign wars than the average voter – that signal could be particularly meaningful.

For more on Iran, nationalism, and what it tells us about Latinos heading into 2028, read the full piece at The New Dynamic and consider subscribing for more deep dives on the lessons we’ve learned from the Trump era.

– Stephanie

Happy Friday!
If I had a dollar for every time in the last six months I’ve been asked about Latinos, socialism, and the DSA… well, you know the rest.

A lot of policy and political issues have additional nuance in the Latino community, and this is no exception. For instance, as you might expect, people’s country of origin and generation shape their views of socialism, but the differences aren’t always straightforward and predictable.

Questions about how Latinos feel about socialism are certainly not new – we were wrestling with them at Equis in our 2020 post-mortem analysis – but the current version of the debate has its own unique contours. Socialism isn’t just one issue. It can (and does) mean different things to different people at different points in time.

One important lesson from our research is that the term “socialism” often serves as a vessel for other concerns – around the role of government in people’s lives, social order and stability, and fairness. So we need to be attuned to how the current socialism debate will play out in combination with other issues. Will a socialism attack that paints Democrats as too radical be effective today, when the economic relief Trump promised is nowhere in sight, and Latinos are struggling to fill their gas tanks and watching their neighbors get deported? We don’t know yet. And the answer is unlikely to come from a single poll with a few hundred Latinos – it’s going to take a lot more time and care to figure this one out.

We also need to keep an eye on the differences between how people feel about socialism, how they feel about the DSA specifically, and how they feel about the policies associated with either label. Those terms may carry baggage that the policies themselves – especially economic ones aimed at affordability – do not.

And in an anti-incumbent moment, we need to be careful about how we interpret wins by DSA or other socialism-adjacent candidates. Is it democratic socialism itself that appeals, or is it breaking from the old Democratic brand? That will be a key question heading into 2028.

At Equis we’re considering a deep-dive project on Latinos and socialism next year. If that’s something that piques your interest, let’s get in touch.

– Stephanie

Happy Monday and welcome to our last week of Dato del Día as a way to highlight important data points about Hispanic voters this Hispanic Heritage Month.
Even as midterm excitement reaches a fever pitch, eyes are already turning to the 2028 presidential primaries. And with the six states that will lead off the Democratic primary calendar – South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia – Latinos are poised to have a bigger say in determining the nominee than ever before.

Beyond the numbers: In both Nevada and New Mexico, there is a lot we’ll need to learn. This is the first time New Mexico has landed this early in the primary calendar, so it will be uncharted territory for candidates who haven’t spent a lot of time there. Nevada is not new to the early window, but this is the first year it will hold a competitive primary rather than a caucus.

In my home state of New Mexico this summer, I have already seen an uptick in potential 2028ers coming through to test the waters – JB Pritzker, Pete Buttigieg, Ro Khanna, Jamie Raskin, and Cory Booker.

Looking ahead to 2028, we are part of the research team behind Project 270, led by Rahna Epting and Xochitl Hinojosa. The research – which kicks off now and will run through next year – will focus on the attitudes and preferences of general election voters, including Latinos, to help ensure that whichever candidate emerges from the primary process is well-positioned to win in the general election as well. The first public poll from this project will be released later this week.

And we are eager to dig in and better understand voter attitudes and voter data in Nevada and New Mexico in 2027. If you are interested in investing in that work, please reach out.

– Stephanie

By some metrics, Latinos have more power to influence control of Congress this year than any other group. They’ll also be pivotal in Senate and governor’s races in Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. In close races, getting Latino GOTV right can help decide the outcome.

At Equis, we’ve long been talking about how the traditional approach to targeting – with separate persuasion and mobilization universes – fails Latinos.

One thing we strongly recommend: expand your persuasion universe to capture more of those swing Latinos. For GOTV itself, start by incorporating some persuasion into your outreach. In addition, here are a few highlights from our brand-new report on best practices for Latino GOTV programs:

• Ensure all mail to Latinos is fully bilingual – every piece in English and Spanish so everyone in the household can read it.
• Use tested messages like social pressure (remind voters that how they vote is private, but whether they vote is public record) and selfless voting (ask voters to think of someone in their life who can’t vote, but will be affected by the result).
• Make an effort to reach neglected voters – a significant share of Latino voters are simply never contacted by any political campaign or organization, and a first contact moves the needle more than a repeat touch on someone already on every list.

If you’re interested in learning more about our GOTV recommendations and how to implement them, please reach out!

– Stephanie

Every time we get a new poll back from the field, I’m itching to talk about the results. And today I’m going to do just that. There’s a lot to talk about!

Among likely Latino voters in the congressional battleground, two-way support for the Democrats is at 62%, putting them ahead of 2022 support levels for the first time this cycle, but still lower than the peak of 2018. (One place where we do see Democrats breaking through to 2018 support levels: Texas!) Democrats have also made gains in party favorability and trust on the issues, particularly the economy, where their advantage over the GOP has risen from +7 in February to +21.

But many Latino voters are still sitting on the fence when it comes to their vote in November: overall, 12% of registered Latino voters remain undecided, including 25% of Spanish-dominant Latinos. One effective message Democrats can use to make their closing argument: Trump’s broken promises.

Throughout the cycle, there has been a growing sense of disappointment in Trump and the Republicans among Latino voters. Many who gave Trump a chance in the 2024 election did so because of the promises he made, particularly on the economy and costs. Nearly two years later, the economic pressure keeps rising, and “broken promises” is a consistent theme among those dissatisfied with the administration. New research from Equis shows that a broken promises message resonates among both English- and Spanish-speaking Latino audiences.

More information on which broken promises message worked the best (we tested five different versions!) is available here.

In close races, a strong finish can make the difference. On that note: tomorrow is the last installment of Dato del Día, and we’ll close out with some of our big questions for the future.

– Stephanie

It’s the last day of Hispanic Heritage Month and the last day of Dato del Día. We hope you’ve found it useful – and maybe even fun.

One thing that makes Equis special is that our work combines actionable analysis with deep thinking about the kinds of long-term questions where others only scratch the surface (or fail to ask at all). Behind all the numbers is an incredible team doing next-level analysis and sense-making.

• What do the midterm results tell us about the trajectory of the Latino vote? How durable should we expect any shifts in support to be?
• What will it take to win Latinos in 2028 – first in the primary, and then in the general? What qualities are Latinos looking for in a nominee? And what does a good Latino program actually look like? (See some early answers from Project 270 here.)
• What will it take for Democrats to credibly break from the past, rebuild broken trust, and tell a new story about themselves that resonates with Latinos?
• How is the landscape of Latino views on tech and media consumption evolving? What threats and opportunities does that evolution present for reaching and communicating with Latino voters?
• What are the best ways to reach, engage and bring more new and irregular Latino voters into the electorate?
• Where do Latinos stand on issues like socialism and the DSA, corruption, AI, immigration, and the American Dream – and where do their views stand out as unique?
• How is Latino identity evolving, especially among younger generations, and how does it interact with other identities, like social class? When and how should political outreach invoke group identities?
• How are key subgroups of Latinos – men and women, young people, parents, potential Trump defectors, irregular voters – navigating the end of the Trump era and the transition to whatever comes next?
• How does Spanish language use shape Latinos’ political experiences and preferences? And what are the best practices for reaching Spanish-speaking Latinos?

As we move forward with these questions in mind, we would love your feedback and support. Was Dato del Día helpful for you? Let us know how. What questions do you have after reading a month of data points? What areas are you interested in digging into further?

We want to be a wayfinder on the next leg of your journey. But the work does not happen on its own. If you are interested in supporting our work, including the 2026 iteration of our post-mortem analysis series, or in partnering on a project, please reach out. My (metaphorical) door is always open.

– Stephanie